Petróleo & Gas  ·  Mercados

Quien tiene un petrolero tiene un tesoro: almacenar crudo en un barco cuesta ahora el triple que hace un año

105 comentarios publicados

La crisis del coronavirus que afecta a la demanda mundial de petróleo ha hecho que en muy pocos días la capacidad de almacenar el dichoso oro negro se haya visto desbordada. Al menos en EEUU. Esta es la causa por la que ayer el precio del barril del West Texas Intermediate se desplomara hasta los 40 dólares negativos por primera vez en la historia.

Los almacenes en tierra están hasta los topes y no hay quien compre petróleo en el mundo. El planeta entero está paralizado, lleva así unos cuantos días y eso ha hecho que en muy poco tiempo los almacenes se han desbordado y se haya tenido que parar la producción de crudo.

En EEUU tiene un grave problema con el almacenamiento del crudo. Según cuenta el Wall Street Journal, uno de los graves problemas económicos de los productores de crudo en EEUU es el alto coste del almacenamiento. Cada día que pasa sale más caro mantener el crudo almacenado y muchas empresas, sobre todo, pequeños productores, no pueden sostener estos altos precios.

Aunque los productores desde Alberta (Canadá) hasta Midland (Texas), están compitiendo para ver quién cierra menos pozos productivos, no han podido evitar quedarse sin lugares para almacenar crudo y productos derivados del petróleo, como la gasolina y el combustible para aviones.

Incluso antes de que el precio fuera negativo, los diferenciales entre el petróleo que se entregaría ahora y más tarde en junio o julio estaban en niveles récord, presentando una rara oportunidad para los comerciantes. Esto hizo que muchos de ellos llenaran los petroleros con crudo y los enviasen mar adentro a la deriva. "Si puede encontrar almacenamiento, puede ganar un buen dinero", afirma Reid I'Anson, economista de la firma de datos de mercado Kpler Inc, al diario Wall Street Journal.

Y es que, según cuenta WSJ, las tasas de arrendamiento se han disparado para los grandes transportistas de crudo, los gigantes de alta mar de 2 millones de barriles conocidos como VLCC.

Según el analista de Jefferies, Randy Giveans, la tarifa diaria promedio para un VLCC en un contrato de seis meses es de aproximadamente unos 100.000 dólares, frente a los 29.000 dólares de hace un año. Los contratos anuales se sitúan alrededor de 72.500 dólares por día, en comparación con los 30.500 dólares de hace un año. Las tarifas chárter al contado se han multiplicado por seis, a casi 150.000 dólares por día.

Las tasas diarias aumentan a medida que se amplía el diferencial entre los contratos de futuros de petróleo. La matemática básica es que cada dólar en el diferencial de seis meses equivale a 10.000 dólares adicionales por día que se pueden pagar por un VLCC durante ese tiempo sin eliminar todas las ganancias en el precio del petróleo, dijo Giveans al WSJ.

Los datos son para asustarse. A finales de marzo había unos 109 millones de barriles de petróleo almacenados en el mar, según Kpler. Para el viernes era de hasta 141 millones de barriles.

Ahora quien tiene un petrolero puede hacerse millonario en pocos días mientras no se resuelva la crisis de demanda de crudo. En las últimas cuatro semanas, se han firmado casi 50 contratos a largo plazo para VLCC, dijo Giveans al WSJ. Jefferies ha identificado que más de 30 de ellos están destinados al almacenamiento, generalmente porque se alquilan sin ubicaciones de descarga.

"Hemos visto más contratos de almacenamiento flotante firmados durante 12 meses en las últimas tres semanas de los que hemos visto en los últimos tres años", dijo Giveans al WSJ.

Pero la oportunidad de negocio no solo está en el almacenamiento flotante de los barcos petroleros. También pueden sacar tajada las empresas con capacidad de almacenamiento terrestre.

Recientemente, los analistas de Bernstein Research calcularon en unos 10 centavos de dólar el costo del almacenamiento por cada barril de petróleo al mes. Pues bien, la diferencia entre los precios del viernes para West Texas Intermediate que se entregarán en mayo, que fue de $ 18.27 por barril, y en mayo de 2021, que cerró en $ 35.52: es de unos 17 dólares. Las empresas de almacenamiento podrían hacer su agosto con estos diferenciales comprando contratos para el petróleo que se entregaría el próximo mes y luego vendiendo contratos para entrega un año después.

De esa forma, se embolsarían ese diferencial. Por ello, es posible que jugadores más grandes como Energy Transfer LP, Enterprise Products Partners LP y Plains All American Pipeline LP puedan tener espacio para decenas de millones de barriles, según las cuentas de Bernstein Research. Estas grandes empresas de almacenamiento de crudo no dan a conocer sus datos reales de capacidad. Algunos podrían hacer su agosto con estos precios.

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105 comentarios

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    21/04/2020

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